Well the regular season is finally here.  It’s time for Tales from The Grid to transition from draft season into the regular season.  And what better way to do that than to finish our draft case study and see how this team shapes up for the regular season.  In case you missed it, here’s the full 3-part article series:

Part One: Setting up my strategy, plugging it into The Grid, and practicing

Part Two: A recap of my live draft after the fact, examining in detail many picks along the way

Part Three: Looking at strengths and weaknesses heading into the season, and introducing a new in-season tool called The Rotoscope.

So let’s use The Rotoscope to take a look at this team heading into the regular season.  The purpose of the tool is to see where you stack up in each category for either roto or H2H scoring.  Take a look at the screenshot below:

So first the good news: we’re projected to win this league.  Wow, is it that easy?  Of course not, so let’s start with some disclaimers.  First, this is based on projections of how each player will do in 2010, and assuming a specific starting lineup that plays all year long.  We of course know from plenty of experience that you simply cannot get super close with individual player projections.  Second, our entire draft strategy in Part 1 was based on using these projections against this league’s rules to see who projects to help us the most in the categories being used.  So it shouldn’t be a surprise that our team projects as the best given our approach and projections.

But even though we can’t take these projections to the bank, they’re more than good enough to get a general idea of where we stand in each category, and begin adjusting for them right out of the gate.  So here’s where we stand:

Hitting

H: We’re right in the middle of a pack, meaning we really could fall anywhere in that group.  There’s nothing specific to do just yet, as we could easily finish second with even minor variation from projections.  Additionally, while it looks like BOYS will run away with it, perhaps that makes a good trade partner later in the year when they have hits to trade.

R: In this category we are projected to finish ahead of the pack.  But, at 1191 it would only be by 37 over the next team, JLD at 1154.  That’s no reason to start trading or taking runs out of our lineup.  We’ll simply feel comfortable here and make sure everything is going to plan as the season unfolds.

HR: This looks good as well, where we’re near the top, certainly guaranteed a top-six finish above the three teams that have a serious power issue (BEAT, BOYS, WEST).  If the race continues to be this close all year, we’ll get in position to sneak ahead of the pack as homers are a little easier to find on the wire than most stats.

RBI: Another good position, as we’re projected to tie for first.  Another team projects to finish close (WEIM at 1144), but then the gap starts to widen.  So we’ll make sure we stay top-three and try to sneak out on top at the end.

BB: If you look back on Part 2, you’ll see that we suspected we may have been heavy on BB and OBP guys since these were two of the more unusual stats in play and most other owners wouldn’t be looking for them.  Confirmed.  We’re projected to obliterate the field in this category.  This means we can start to think trade pretty early in the season to deal some BB guys for help elsewhere, perhaps Hits or Stolen Bases.  Think about May 1 as the right time to make a move once you can be sure you’re already running away in the category, and tight races have developed amongst other owners.

SB: We knew this at the time, but we’re not looking good in stolen bases.  That was the strategy, because it’s so specialized and in this league it’s one of 8 categories instead of 5.  That said, it’s not a great idea to accept such a low finish in any stat.  Think about a trade of your surplus in Runs and BB with BEAT, in return for some of their SB, in which they project to dominate.

AVG: I’m a little surprised to see us project as far down here as we do.  After all, a .285 average seems to be better than 5^th out of 9.  Add to that the fact that averages can fluctuate more wildly from year to year than just about any stat, and we simply should let this unfold a bit before we assume we’ll finish middle of the pack.  But, if it does look like we’re lagging as April is ending, it pays to make a move, because AVG is harder and harder to improve as the year goes on.

OBP: As we mentioned in BB, we’re golden here.  Guys who do well in BB also do well here, so that makes it relatively easy to try and sell a player as a 2-category difference maker in a trade.  The more we look at hitting stats, the more a trade of BB/OBP guys for top-of-the-order, H/AVG/SB guys seems inevitable.  Get active early and see if you can strike a good deal with a panicky owner even in April.

Pitching

Before we even get into the stats, let me mention that projecting roto/category scoring in pitching is even harder than hitting before the season even starts.  There tends to be more turnover in pitching staffs, and also a lot of variation in how many relievers teams are mixing in with starters.  So even moreso we have to take projections with a grain of salt.  But overall patterns still emerge that can guide you right out of the gate.

K: Here’s an example of learning something right now that can help us.  We do not project well here.  Even worse, pitchers don’t tend to stray from their projections in strikeouts compared to other stats.  We have a total starts limit in this league, so we can’t make up for the deficit in volume of starts.  Our options are 1) accept a low finish, 2) make some trades or 3) Be aggressive in using high-K relief pitchers and rotating them through the lineup every day.

CG: This category is fun because it’s so dramatic.  Every team starts bunched at 0 for a week or more, and that first CG is exciting to watch for.  That said, it is not a stat you can do much about.  Pretty much all you can do, other than accept what happens, is overwhelm another owner in a trade for Halladay or Sabathia, who are about the only guys you can predict will get CGs.  That we project to win this with 9 CGs is honestly a big surprise.  Let’s just hope we’re lucky and it’s true.

W: Wins are pretty hard to predict, though easier than CGs.  It’s good that we cling to the second tier of wins with 85 projected, however a lot will shift.  One strategy we laid out to catch up in Ks will help here - if we aggressively start relievers, we’ll steal extra wins that way and hopefully climb above some of those teams near the top.

SV: Now saves are a little easier to control in one respect - at any given point in the season you pretty much know which guy on each MLB team has a chance to get a save.  On the other hand, throughout the season there’s a lot of turnover in closer roles, and those changes will change the balance of saves in your fantasy league.  Since we didn’t focus on saves in the draft, it’s great to see us still projected so high.  We’ll just keep an eye on it and make sure we stay near the top.

HD: Holds are easy to control as well, although they’re a lot less intuitive to most fantasy players.  The MLB holds rule is weird.  Plus most owners won’t draft for holds.  In this category you really have to watch what happens in the regular season and adjust, rather than using projections at this point.  One final note, our emerging strategy of playing relievers will result in a great holds total as well.

ERA: As much as you’ll hear about the flaws of ERA as a stat, and they’re legit flaws, in fantasy you can count on many pitchers to have relatively high or low ERAs, especially based on the league, division, and ballpark they play in.  So the fact that we project near the top means something: we should be in good shape, but we do have to check closely all year.

WHIP: Now WHIP is a great stat.  It’s really predictable, as starters who walk a lot of batters have intolerable WHIPs, and those who don’t can win you this category.  It can be so common for owners to go after flashy strikeout artists and ignore WHIP.  This is the final piece we need to hear to solidify our strategy of using good relievers for extra Ks, rather than fringe starters.  Fringe starters can get Ks, but will erode your WHIP and probably cost you more in the end.  Good relievers might gain you just a point or two in Ks, but may also gain a point or two in WHIP, a much more disciplined strategy.

K/BB: This is a cool stat you don’t see a lot.  Ks are already a stat, and WHIP is largely a measure of BBs.  But the combination of the two provide an interesting dynamic.  High K / high BB guys get attention in the draft, but they do well in one category and hurt two.  But lower K / lower BB guys help two categories and hurt one.  As you can see, this is exactly what we’ve ended up with.  Look at the team BEAT.  Way up at the top in K, but in the basement for WHIP and K/BB.  That’s 10 total roto points for three categories.  Whereas we have good WHIP and K/BB and bad strikeouts, projecting for 16 roto points in the three categories.

So this analysis really completes the picture of our draft strategy and how it can win leagues.  We exploited rare categories like BB, OBP, and K/BB to maximize roto points, and we project to win the league convincingly.  But as we said before, you can’t count on the season going according to script.  That means we need a tool to stay on top of the fluctuating dynamics and adjust accordingly.  Enter The Rotoscope.  In just minutes a day you can truly see where everything stands, and lineup, waiver, and trade decisions will become very easy.

Even before the season, you can see how broad patterns emerged that already give us a couple strategies we can work on right out of the gate, without reacting to early season slumps and streaks.  Here’s what we have to work on for this team:

• Look to move a BB/OBP guy in favor of a top-of-the-order hitter with either a great AVG and solid steals, or solid AVG and great steals. They don’t grow on trees, but neither to do well-rounded BB/OBP guys. Perhaps some of those guys will start slow and a panicky owner will give you great value to balance your roto needs.
• Use a lot of relievers with good WHIP, K/BB and K. You’ll be surprised how many of them are out there. Non-closers and non-starters just aren’t targets of a lot of teams. Not only will they bolster WHIP and K/BB, but they’ll gain you valuable ground with K, W, and HD.

We’ll return in this space later this month with Under the Rotoscope, with insight into how to manage your team’s categories specific to how this year is unfolding.

Tags: Fantasy Baseball, The Grid, The Rotoscope