1. The fans vote for the starters: I’m all for the fans getting involved in the game and watching their favorite players play in what is supposed to be an exhibition game but if the game is supposed to count, and it does as it determines home field advantage in the World Series, than the fans can no longer be allowed to vote.  I’m not saying every choice the fans make is wrong, but there are always a couple of head scratches and this season is no example.  St. Louis catcher Yadier Molina was voted to start the game, at the start of play on Tuesday, Molina was batting a robust .229.  That would be the lowest average for an All-Star starter since Cal Ripken Jr. in 1993 and it’s not like he makes up for his lack of average with power, he has only three home runs and 32 RBIs as well.  Miguel Olivo of Colorado would’ve been a much better choice.

2. Players vote for reserves: This does sound like a good idea as players would have a much better idea of who deserves to go.  Problem is in an informal survey 50% of the players admitted to not filling out their own ballot, rather they handed the ballot to someone else (clubhouse attendant, etc) to fill out for them.

3. Managers making selections: We see this every season, and this year was no different.  Managers are going to take their own players.  Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel took his own player Ryan Howard over the Reds Joey Votto even though Votto is having a much better season this year and may be the National League MVP to date.  Yankees manager Joe Girardi did the same thing, taking Alex Rodriguez over Boston’s Kevin Youkilis.  It’s hard to blame the manager for these decisions.  They need their players to play for them in order the team to succeed.  Do you think Manuel or Girardi want Howard or ARod to be sulking the rest of the season and resent them for not selecting them to the game, of course not, and that’s why the selections should be made by the league presidents rather than the managers.

4. Result decides which league gets home field advantage in the World Series: This is an interesting idea.  One which would seem to make the game more competitive but there are a few problems.  Too many players that don’t deserve to be there for a variety of reasons are playing.  Do you think a player who is on a team that has no chance of making the playoffs (Baltimore, Pittsburgh) cares about home field advantage?  It’s not going to make a difference to them.  Why isn’t home field advantage awarded to the team that has the best record?  If you don’t like that idea how bout home field advantage to the league that has the best record in Inter-league play?

5. If this game is supposed to be for the fans, than why don’t the starters play longer than three innings? These are the players voted in.  Shouldn’t they be around longer than the first third of the game?  You could also make the argument they should play the last three innings so they are on the field when the game is decided.

6. Omar Infante is an All-Star: Are you kidding me?  Infante has 169 Abs for the Atlanta Braves so far this season.  Sure he is batting over .300, but he has one home run and 22 RBIs and three stolen bases.  He is not even a starter for his own team, but Commissioner Bud Selig in his infinite wisdom decided that each league needed to select a utility player.  Why was this necessary, 34 roster spots aren’t enough?  Should Infante really be able to put on his resume that he is a former All-Star?  Should Joey Votto really miss this game so Infante can play?  My guess is Infante is also pretty embarrassed to be taking a roster spot of several hundred more deserving players.

7. Every team must be represented: Once again a nice idea, but this is an All-Star game.  If your team doesn’t have anyone worthy of going to the game, than you shouldn’t have a representative.  Once again this game counts, can’t have some average player determining home field advantage with a weak AB in the 9^th inning.

8. Watching teams campaign for their players: I know you want your team to be represented and it’s probably good marketing, but watching some teams do everything but stuff the ballot box for their players is just an embarrassment to baseball.

9. All-Star bonuses: Why should players be rewarded for doing their job well?  These clauses in their contract that states they will receive an extra 50K or 100K on top of the millions they already receive just for getting selected to the game.  Must drive owners nuts when although the rosters are only 34 players, it will be closer to 40 by the time all the injured players have to be selected, not to mention pitchers picked to play in the game but can’t pitch because they will start for their team on the Sunday prior.  Those extra players are still All-Stars and will cash in on those bonuses as well.  Joe Girardi actually picked three players for one spot.  He chose CC Sabathia to make the team knowing CC can’t pitch because he is starting on Sunday, to replace him he chose Jered Weaver of the Angels who is also schedule to start on Sunday, so he will need to be replaced as well.

10. Players don’t really care about the game: We all hear about how many players, once they are taken out of the game, they shower get dressed and clear out of the stadium well before the final out.  Not like they are all that concerned about the outcome.

All of this being said, I will still watch the game.  I’m a Yankee fan so I will root for the American League to win, like I always have, but truth is I would just like to see a good game.  As for all of the above complaints, it seems most of them could be solved if MLB would just make up its mind, is this an exhibition game for the fans, or does it count?  MLB wants to bake their cake and eat it to, and they just can’t have it both ways.

Some players just get off to slow starts so I always give April as a grace period. During May I’m watching the statistics a little closer. I might make a move or two, but I don’t want to be jumping the gun so I still tend to be cautious, but after Memorial Day all bets are off and if my team is still not performing up to standards, than no one is safe. With that in mind let’s take a look at the most disappointing player at each position so far this season.

Catcher: Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles, .246 AVG, 4 HRs, 16 RBIs.

When Wieters was called up from AAA last season he was thought to be the second coming of Joe Mauer. He started off slowly in 2009 but looked great in August and September leading to fantasy owners assuming he would be a top five catcher this season. Well so far that has not come to fruition, not even close. The good news is that defensively he has been good so there is no worry about Baltimore sending him back down to the minors, but at this point you have to start wondering if Wieters is trying to become the catching counterpart to Adam Laroche. In other words, someone who has slow first halves before taking off in the second half.

Honorable Mention: Chris Ianetta

First Base: Carlos Pena, Tamp Bay Rays, .176 AVG, 8 HRs, 32 RBIs.

Pena’s RBI total almost got him off this list but that batting average just sticks out like a neon sign. What is even more remarkable is that he is playing in front of a fantastic lineup and has plenty of opportunities. Pena has been moved around in the lineup of late and one has to wonder if a benching could be in the works if his hitting doesn’t improve. Pena was never expected to hit for a high average. .240 would be acceptable if he were to be on pace for 35+ home runs, but so far he’s well short of that. These are not the numbers you would expect of someone in their free agent year.

Honorable Mention: Derek Lee, Chris Davis, Todd Helton.

Second Base: Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox, .204 AVG, 1 HRs, 24 RBIs.

Big things were expected out of Beckham this season. Like Wieters he is a second year player, but unlike Wieters he had no problems hitting from beginning to end last season, so there was no reason to expect the disaster that has become the 2010 season for Beckham. What should be of even bigger concern for fantasy owners is that there has been grumblings going on behind the scenes that Beckham may need a stint in the minors to figure things out. Could the position switch from third base to second base be what is causing his problems? Possibly, but everyone is denying that. I have my doubts also as Beckham’s biggest problem seems to be hitting the fastball and no matter where you play on the diamond that shouldn’t be a problem.

Honorable Mention: Chone Figgins

Shortstop: Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee Brewers, .250 AVG, 2 HRs, 16 RBIs.

Another rookie who seems to have been overhyped. The development of Escobar was one of the main reasons why the Brewers dealt J. J. Hardy to Minnesota in the offseason. When you look at Escobar’s numbers, he wasn’t expected to hit for much power or drive in many runs, but what has happened to his speed? His main fantasy asset was his ability to steal bases and to this date he has two. That is just unacceptable. Everyone goes into slumps where you can’t hit the ball, but speed should never go into a slump.

Honorable Mention: J. J. Hardy, Yunel Escobar.

Third Base: Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs, .162 AVG, 4 HRs, 20 RBIs.

Yeah, who saw this coming? Ramirez has been nothing short of a disaster so far this season. Is he injured? Sure he has had a thumb injury of late but what’s his excuse for the rest of the season? Is his shoulder still bothering him from last season? Is he just one of those players whose skills erode quickly? There is no chance that you will be able to trade Ramirez for anything of value at this point in the season as his troubles have gotten wide publicity, but at this point I would certainly cut bait as there is no end in sight to his offensive woes.

Honorable Mention: Jose Lopez, Miguel Tejada.

Outfielder: B. J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays, .219 AVG, 6 HRs, 21 RBIs.

Time may be running out on Upton in Tampa Bay as Desmond Jennings is getting closer and closer to being ready to play in the majors and his position, centerfield. Upton is in a two-year slump. Last year he was given a free pass as most thought the shoulder surgery he underwent after the 2008 season affected his play in 2009. Upton can no longer use that injury as an excuse as his shoulder has had more than enough time to heal. Upton’s attitude has also been called into question from time to time as he has sulked about being moved lower in the lineup, but someone batting around the Mendoza line doesn’t have the right to complain about batting in the bottom third of the order.

Outfielder: Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles, .252 AVG, 5 HRs, 15 RBIs.

Another Oriole on this list, not that it should come as a surprise as the O’s are one of if not the worst team in baseball. Jones came out like gangbusters last season after Baltimore acquired the young outfielder from Seattle in the Erik Bedard deal. Jones made the All-Star and drove in the winning run for the American League in that game last season. Well it has been mostly downhill since. If you take away the first two months of the 2009 season, Jones has batted .233 with 11 home runs. Will the real Jones please stand up?

Outfielder: Carlos Lee, Houston Astros, .206 AVG, 5 HRs, 21 RBIs.

All you need to know about Lee is that when you hear about the players the Astros might try to trade before the deadline (Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman); lee’s name is not mentioned. Is that because everyone knows he won’t play anywhere near what he is being paid? The Astros are really close to being blown up, and even if Lee were to return to his previous form he may not have all that much help around him.

Honorable Mention: Grady Sizemore, Kyle Blanks, Milton Bradley, Nolan Reimold, Nate McLouth.

Starting Pitcher: Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox, 1-1, 7.29 ERA.

Even before he was placed on the disabled list Beckett was getting batted around with surprising regularity. Beckett was supposed to be the ace of what is a very strong Boston rotation, but has had troubles starting from opening day. Some thought it was his contract situation that was bothering him, but once that was settled he still struggled, and now comes word that he won’t even throw for the next 10 days making it highly unlikely that he will return before the All-Star break.

Honorable Mention: Ben Sheets, Randy Wolf, Wandy Rodriguez, Rick Porcello, Carlos Zambrano.

Closer: Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers, 1-4, 5 saves, 11.65 ERA.

With the news on Wednesday that Mariners outfielder Ken Griffey will retire on Thursday, can Hoffman be far behind. Hoffman has already allowed the most earned runs in a season since 1999. It’s time to bow out gracefully Trevor.

Honorable Mention: Brad Lidge, Mike Gonzalez, Franklin Morales, Chad Qualls, Frank Francisco, Bobby Jenks.

Each week Brian gives you his Must Starts, Advisable Options, and Risky Plays.

Also catch Brian Jester and George Kurtz out every single week on their Podcast MLB Breakdown Mondays at 6:00pm EST.

When I started sketching ideas for this week’s column, I thought I’d take a break from the player comparison series and focus on a single player. As I put pen to paper, I found myself thinking about the waiver wire and its magical call to the struggling owner. Even though the season is just five short weeks old, there are some owners out there who are scrambling to make up ground in an effort to catapult themselves out of the league basement. While I applaud the idea in theory, I don’t think an owner should mindlessly grab the first guy they see; if you don’t take the time and window shop you might just end up with a big old pile of something shiny…only to realize its nothing more than a pot of fools gold.

Of course I’m speaking tongue-in-cheek here, but you get my point. Stay away from player on the wire with gaudy stats—the seemingly “out-of-nowhere” guy. If you don’t heed my warning, you’ll regret it. Kind of like the morning after tipping a few too many pints with the boys and talking to “that” girl in the corner—the one who’s still there, all alone at closing time…anyway, you get my point.

To help me illustrate my point, why don’t we use “Russell the Muscle” as our test case. And I know what you’re thinking—who in the world is “Russell the Muscle?” To answer that let me provide you with the…

Drew Proof: Currently, Russell Oles Branyan is owned in 3% of the ESPN standard league universe.  And while its only 3%, its 3% too much.  The only reason someone would own Branyan is to see if they can pick up a few dingers on the cheap. Lest you think my diatribe is comprised of pure vitriolic vengeance, take a look at these stats:

In his first game, 11 years ago, he went 0-4 with two strikeouts.  Although unknown at the time, this line would become standard fare for the pride of Warner Robins, Georgia…

…as he’s struck out 40% of his career-to put that in perspective that is more than 950 strikeouts in just over 2,400 at-bats.

He’s only hit over .250 once in his career…and his career average is only slightly above the Mendoza line at .234.

58% of the balls he’s hit (and that hasn’t been too many folks) have been fly balls, yet he’s only managed 167 career home runs.  This from a 6′3″ 230lb man known for his “light-tower power?”

He’s played for eight teams in his tenure: Cleveland, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Seattle.  For some unknown reason San Diego, Milwaukee and Cleveland liked his poor performance so much they each signed him on two different occasions.

And perhaps the most telling stat of all-he averages 80 games played each year he’s been in the bigs.  Translated over a 162 game season means he’s inactive 50% of the time!  Even if that lack of activity had been due to injuries and not abysmal performance it would be a red flag in of itself.

Again, Branyan is owned in 3% of ESPN leagues.  His ownership is probably similar in other leagues like Yahoo, etc.  So even with his “potential” to hit the ball a country mile, you can see that he’s nowhere near what he’s cracked up to be. Stay away from Branyan and the other “out-of-nowhere” guys-you’ll thank me later.

As always-I write these articles to provoke thought-please feel free to post a comment. See you next week!

In this week 6 version Brian is back with yet another can’t miss pitching analysis.

This is one of our many can’t miss articles here at FantasyBaseballJournal.com!

Pitcher A: 3-1 record / 44 K’s / 16 BB’s / 3.03 ERA / 1.14 WHIP / 38.2 IP

Pitcher B: 2-0 record / 24 K’s / 11 BB’s / 2.23 ERA / 0.99 WHIP / 36.1 IP

Currently Pitcher A, Colby Lewis, is owned in twice as many leagues as Pitcher B, Jeff Niemann.  Should he be?  Good question astute readers, but before you answer let me pose another question: how would you value each pitcher if you threw out the counting stats and focused only on the ratios?  More simply put, which pitcher is more effective?  While you ponder that let me provide you with the…

Drew Proof: The answer can be found using FIP.  FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and measures how effective a pitcher is based only on plays that don’t involve fielders: things such as home runs allowed, strikeouts, walks; in other words things that are within the pitcher’s control in that fielders have no effect on the outcome.  Taking it a step further, FIP gives a more accurate view of a pitcher’s true ERA.  The formula for FIP is:

(13*HR)+(3*BB)-(2*K) divided by (IP) + 3.20

To save time, I’ve already calculated the FIP value for each pitcher using their career :

Lewis: 5.27

Niemann: 4.14

Based on the FIP numbers for these two right-handers, both are about 2 runs ahead of where their true ERAs reside.  But if both are pitching with about the same effectiveness, which one should you add to your team?  The answer is Niemann.  And when you put their career stat lines together and add in FIP as I did below it isn’t even close:

Lewis: 15-16 record / 199 K’s / 140 BB’s / 6.15 ERA / 1.71 WHIP / 5.27 FIP / 256 IP

Niemann: 17-8 record / 163 K’s / 78 BB’s / 3.75 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 4.14 FIP / 233 IP

Not only does Niemann have a better K/BB ratio, his career ERA is actually lower than his career FIP.  This interesting factoid shows that Niemann is much more effective over the course of a season than Lewis—and even though Lewis can get you K’s it will come at the expense of your team’s ratios.

As always, I write these articles to provoke thought—please feel free to post your comments.  See you next week!

John Jaso TB - He could play his way into a platoon with Navarro. He could win the job outright. The question is…can he keep it up?

Max Ramirez TEX - A sleeper prospect here. He got called up. He has the tools. Salty and Teagarden have struggled beyond struggling. Do you really think Treanor is the answer?

Josh Donaldson OAK - Looks to be getting the starts while Suzuki is on the DL! May be better than starting a “Laird”!

Jake Fox OAK - Could reach the game minimum to qualify at Catcher while Suzuki is out. A better long-term move here.

1B/3B

None to mention!

2B/SS

Eric Young Jr. COL - Should not have been available in most leagues last week due to his minor league status! Either way, if he is still there, then scoop him off the wire. He will add steals and runs at the minimum.

OF

David Murphy TEX - A good bat to replace Cruz while he is on the DL. May even play over Borbon if he can’t get the job done. Either way, a decent play for a few weeks.

Nate Schierholtz SF - He’s been playing pretty well of late. Rosterable at the minimum. However, what happens when Rowand comes back?

Jack Cust OAK - He’s in the minors now, but with Oakland’s lack of power he is bound to return. Beware of his average though!

Austin Kearns CLV - Batting in the cleanup spot! Productive! He was good once, and it looks as though he has regained the edge.

Ryan Spilborghs COL - Should get playing time with Hawpe on the DL. Go with it till then

Jermaine Dye FA - Still can’t figure out why a possible contender has not signed him. Again, if Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis can make 10 million a year…why won’t someone sign a All-Star for 3 mill?

SP

Trevor Cahill OAK - Duchscherer may be out for a while. Sheets might not even belong in the Majors anymore. Cahill has a good arm and pitched well toward the end of last year.

Jaime Garcia STL - He’s still pitching well for the Cards. I’m not sure for how long, but he does have a good team around him right?

RP

Evan Meek PITT - Dotel is horrible thus far. Meek is excellent. Meek also has some time in the Majors. Does Pittsburgh really need to ride it out on the Dotel rollercoaster? Do they need to wait for him to get it together? Only thing is the cash…how much are they paying Dotel to not close?

Latroy Hawkins MILW - Funny how Francisco blows a few saves and loses his job, while other closers like Hoffman can torch 4 games and remain as closer. He closed it out last night without any problems, but what if he’s reached the end of the line?

Alfredo Simon BALT - Closing for BALT at the moment, and there is no guarantee Gonzalez jumps right back in when he is better. Sometimes the players that come out of nowhere make things happen unexpectedly. This could be that here.

Koji Uehara BALT - Could be the closer if Simon falters!

Last year on Memorial Day weekend, my wife and I spent time putting up the family pool. When our kids were little, the setup took about five minutes-it doesn’t take long to fill a baby pool. As the kids got older, we graduated to the inflatable models. These took a little longer to blow up and fill. But before long the kids were too big and had grown tired of the inflatable pools. So we went out and purchased what I affectionately referred to as a “big bag of water.” It was actually a vinyl pool with an inflatable top ring. Setup was straight forward-inflate the top ring, smooth out the bottom, put the hose in and turn on the water and presto-the pool grew like magic. Sounds cheesy I know, but the family really enjoyed it. That year’s Memorial Day weekend started out the same as always, get out the pool, start filling it up, etc. Only one problem, unbeknownst to us, the pool had developed a slow leak. And as luck would have it, we didn’t discover this until the pool was about a quarter full. I should mention that a quarter full equaled approximately 800 gallons of water. My wife went to the store to get a new pool and I got to work on draining out the water.

Once the water was draining I had some free time on my hands. I thought I’d be industrious and start working on my next article. I sat down at the computer, opened Word and found myself a victim of writer’s block. I had nothing, nada, zilch. Since I couldn’t think of anything to write, I hopped over to ESPN and took a look around the baseball box scores. One thing led to another and I found myself checking out Francisco Liriano’s latest implosion-which got me thinking at the time-was Liriano really that bad or was this just a blip on the radar for the phenom known as “The Franchise” to his teammates?

While I was pondering that notion I took a look at the stats behind one of last year’s aces Zack Greinke. At that point in the season he was a monster; and my mindset changed—I knew Liriano was a better pitcher than Greinke—how could I prove it to the masses? Flash forward to 2010: while 2009 didn’t end as well as I’d hoped for my theory, this year is off to a great start. In fact, when you dig into the underlying numbers you’ll see my theory is alive and well.

Ok, I’ve wasted enough of your time with the obligatory setup, let me provide you with the…

Drew Proof: At the onset of draft season, Liriano was nowhere near the Top 50 pitchers on most people’s radar. On the opposite side of the coin Greinke was rated in the Top 5; a true blue fantasy ace. These pre-season rankings played true as Greinke’s average draft position was 25 and “The Franchise” was mired at 210.

As I’ve said before, I often have a contrarian view when it comes to player ratings. This time is no different; to help prove my point I looked at the following stats for each pitcher:

K/9, K/BB, BAA, SLG and Groundball-to-Flyball ratio (G/B)

When you compare the two’s career numbers side-by-side, you can clearly see how Liriano’ past sets him up for a better future as compared to Greinke. Here are their historical lines using the aforementioned statistics:

Greinke:
K/9: 7.6
K/BB: 3.35
BAA: .262
SLG: .414
G/B: .65

Liriano:
K/9: 9.16
K/BB: 2.69
BAA: .241
SLG: .384
G/B: .92

Liriano beats Greinke in all categories outside of K/BB; and that was due to his slower than expected recovery from elbow surgery last year. A few weeks ago I made the argument a player’s performance is usually the same year-over-year using past history as a guide. Using that assumption (a.k.a. the Crossman Conjecture) one can easily see Liriano will induce more groundballs and strikeout nearly 2 more batters per 9 innings pitched than Greinke.

Hitters will also accumulate fewer bases and hit 30 points lower against “The Franchise”. Liriano has a longer future ahead of him (barring injury) when you factor in that Greinke has already pitched nearly 2.5 times as many innings. And lastly, as impressive as the 2010 Royals have been, they are after all, the Royals. Put more simply, the Twins are a better team and will give Liriano a lot more opportunities to get your team wins as well. My advice? Target the Liriano owner in your league, offer him a reasonable version of the classic “two average guys for one good guy” trade offer and you might find yourself with the trade of the year.

As always, I write these articles to provoke thought—please feel free to post your comments. See you next week!

It’s important to wait at least this long to start reacting to any needs with moves of any significance.  You’ve probably heard over and over how small sample sizes can’t be trusted, and it’s absolutely true.  Now, I do have a loose strategy for moves during the first three weeks, which I’ll summarize here, but it’s much too volatile to have given you any consistent advice.  But after I cover that, I’ll show you a clip from The Rotoscope so we can start to make some disciplined moves to improve.

Very early season strategy

It’s hard not to react to incredible streaks or slumps being put up in the early weeks, but we’ve all heard from experts not to over-react.  That’s absolutely true for players you’ve put a high investment in (either auction dollars or high draft picks).  But I tend to be more aggressive than most at the low end, cutting bait on $1 or late-round guys very quickly to chase the guy having a hot streak.  Every year there are real, season-long contributors nobody drafted but who started quickly.  I want to get those guys.  It’s difficult, because for each guy like that, there are 3 or more who start hot and end up as irrelevant as we all thought.  But to chase those guys, and constantly cycle through free agents until some stick, means you have to part with guys you picked up late in your draft/auction who started slow.  And this cuts both ways.  It’s how I got most of Jose Guillen’s April production into my starting lineup, and Shaun Marcum’s solid starts also.  But it’s also how I gave up on Francisco Liriano after his first shaky start before he got in a groove.  And this year I came away with a new lesson, which I’ll get back to shortly: For chasing pitchers, wait one more start before you make a final call, even if it’s on your bench.

Early Season Strategy

Now, it’s still early, but it’s not too early to start making decisions with the long haul in mind.  In other words, to start trusting some of the sample sizes and shaping your roster for balance of roto needs instead of short-term “talent chasing”.  Click the image below to see the roto spacing chart for my league, as provided by The Rotoscope:

Now bear with me as I run as quickly as possible through a progression of analyzing this chart and determining what action to take as a result:

• Hitting looks good. I’m in the top half of the chart in all 8 categories, while leading 3. From my last column you may remember that this is as-hoped, that my hitting is stacked and it’s my pitching that is a worry. In addition, my 1^st, 2^nd, and 5^th picks are A-Rod, Mark Teixeira and Jason Bay, who have all started woefully slow, especially in HR. So hitting needs no attention right now, except …
• Stolen Bases is rock-bottom. I knew coming out of the draft I was shaky, but I didn’t know it was this bad. I’m not ready to chase it yet, because I want to see how it develops. It’s quite possible a little tier develops there between me, the team I’m tied with, and TROP and BOYS right above us. In future weeks I might make a move to lead this tier, and that’s it. That should help me gain 2.5 roto points without screwing with my core lineup.
• Now pitching is another story, where I’m bottom-half of the chart. Although note that one of the benefits of this chart is that while I may be below the middle-point of the leader and the bottom-dweller, I’m still ahead of a lot of teams. So roto points are better than they look. But then, it tells me my pitching efforts may be more about keeping other teams at bay than grabbing more roto points from teams above me.
• Here are some important points that shape my goal for this week: 1) We have a games started cap of 162 for the season, 2) I’m running ahead of pace on starts and my K per start is much worse than my overall K because I’m ahead of pace, and 3) We have a transaction limit for the league, that I’ve already cut into ahead of pace.
• So here’s my goal: Establish a consistent 5 or 6-man pitching staff, with good K, good WHIP, and good K/BB. Once I do that, I can start to stick high-K relievers in the lineup every day that can bolster my K, steal some Wins, and propel me upwards in Holds. Because right now I’m carrying too many starting pitcher “projects” and making too many pitcher moves.

I’m going to look at my own pitchers and notable free agent pitchers and evaluate them on the following four stats on a per start basis:

• Strikeouts (K): Not only are K and K/BB actual categories, they are also good indicators of how well someone is pitching and helps predict future success
• Walks (BB): Same as above - high walks are a very bad sign
• Hits (H): Hits per start. While not quite as indicative as K or BB, hits still help illustrate how much damage a pitcher is likely to give up
• Innings Pitched (IP): This will help illustrate the pitcher’s opportunity for Wins, and just generally how stable they’ve been

In addition, I like to look at per-start trends, and not just totals.  For instance, Colby Lewis’s 28 strikeouts in 23 innings are impressive, but his per game strikeouts are: 3-10-5-10.  That volatility is important to see - I would feel better if it was more like 7-7-7-7.  Furthermore, his walks look like this: 4-4-2-2.  12 overall walks doesn’t look good, but I can see them trending downward.  So let’s take a look at these four stat trends for my pitchers and a generous list of free agents (note this is a somewhat shallow league and these players may not be available in yours).

My current pitchers

Free Agent Pitchers

So with no further ado, here are my observations about how I would approach my strategy for each player I own:

• Shaun Marcum: Keep and start. His opening day no-hit bid was flashy, but not enough are giving credit to his stability since. I love the consistent K line at 6-5-6-6, and the 1-walk per game pace.
• Hiroki Kuroda: Keep and match up. I’ll start him today against the shaky Mets offense, but his hit trend has me watching closely (5-10-7)
• Ricky Romero: One more start on bench. Romero is an up-and-down guy, which I don’t want to tolerate. If he keeps up the downward K trend (4-12-6-3) I may consider dropping him. If he’s a matchup play I have to bench against the Rays and Yanks all the time, I don’t have room for him.
• Cole Hamels: Keep and start. Hey, I didn’t invest a top-10 pick to give up on him, plus his K and BB trends are solid despite ERA bumps. K: 5-6-8-7 BB: 4-1-0-1
• Scott Baker: Keep and match up. He’s bugging me with inconsistency, but I have to wait - he hits mid-season grooves. Next time out, if hits spike again, I may re-think.
• Clay Buchholz: One more start on bench. Last time out he went 10K/1BB, but I just don’t trust it yet. Just like Romero, I can’t tolerate up-and-down with that AL East schedule.
• Ted Lilly: Keep, next start on bench. Lilly has a really nice track record for this league setup, and will probably be a mainstay. I just need to ease into his return from injury.
• Chris Carpenter: Keep and start. His early struggles in K and HR allowed have melted away for my ace. His K trend of 10-10 in past two games eases my mind.

Finally, here’s my disposition on each of the notable free agents:

• Wandy Rodriguez: Wait another start. He was drafted then dropped by a quick-triggered owner, but his inconsistency is hard to take with a deep free agent pool.
• Mat Latos: Watch casually. His low Ks are an issue, if they rise I’ll pay attention.
• Barry Zito: On the short list. If he posts one more good start or one of my guys tanks a start, I will grab him. I won’t immediately because the Ks and BBs are very inconsistent and the low hit totals reak of market correction.
• Dallas Braden: On the short list. Ks are inconsistent, and low H may be market-corrected. But low walks and AL West schedule are enticing.
• Brad Penny: Watch next start. Walk trend is nice, as is NL Central competition, but rising hits and lagging strikeouts demand more evidence before jumping.
• Wade Davis: On the back burner. His low hits are interesting, to say the least (7-2-2), but middling Ks and bad walks (4-4-3) demand quite a bit more evidence.
• Joel Pineiro: Watch casually. He’s got a track record of low-K but low-BB, which is tolerable in this league, but I need to see what happens with those hits (5-5-9-11).
• Mike Pelfrey: Watch next start. There’s buzz the 27-year-old has it figured out finally. But the 20-inning-game he saved, and the 5-inning CG rainout make it complicated to judge yet. And then there’s those walks: 4-0-3-5. Just have to wait.
• Randy Wolf: On the back burner. Started with 8K/0BB effort, then went 3-4-3 on Ks and 3-3-3 on Walks since then.
• CJ Wilson: Watch casually. There’s some good signs, but steady walks and downward-trending Ks will require at least two more starts to judge.
• Fausto Carmona: Watch casually. He may be pitching to contact more, with his walks trending down 6-4-2-0 and hits trending up 1-5-6-7. Meanwhile Ks leveling at 1-4-4-4. This is good progress for him, and worth keeping an eye on.
• Jaime Garcia: Watch casually. May be a case of the league starting to catch up to this young pitcher. Two intriguing starts gave way to a 2K, 3BB, 7H line last time out.
• Randy Wells: Watch next start. Not noted for Ks, but going for 7-5-6 last three games out is a great sign. His BB of 2-1-2-0 look pretty good as long as he’s striking out more than 3 or 4 per game. One more 6+ K start would put him on my short list.
• Kevin Millwood: Watch next start. Watching next start because it’s the Yanks. If he tanks it, I’ll watch again next time out, at which time he might be on the short list. Why? His K and BB lines look really good at 5-6-9-4 and 1-0-0-3.
• Kevin Correia: Watch casually. Hey, if he kept up the solid-K, high-BB, low-Hit trend all year I could live with it, but he’s young and I see inconsistency and a market correction in hits.
• Colby Lewis: Watch next start. He’s really got stuff, and one thing I need is a pitcher who can pile up some Ks in a single start. But I’ve got to see the inconsistency and walks trending the right way at least one more time out.
• Jeff Niemann: Watch next start. I’ve already stated low tolerance for young pitchers in the AL East, but at least he can’t pitch against his own Rays. The 8K/1BB line last time out needs one more repetition and I’ll be paying attention fast.
• Carlos Silva: Watch casually. He’s been around forever with the same mediocre schtick. So I can’t buy the low hits just yet. He can continue the modest Ks with low-low walks though.

So there you go.  Many leagues are different in terms of the scoring, and depth of free agent pool.  But here is a glimpse into the way I approach my needs in a roto league, and how I start to solidify a roster long-term.  Hopefully you can apply this to your team(s).  If nothing else, I hope the “game by game” approach to looking at pitchers shed some light on who may be of value.  If all these guys are taken in your league that may be much deeper, you can still use this for need-based trades.

Join me next week for a look at how The Rotoscope can help you even in ever-popular H2H leagues.